Forex Forecast 2014

I would like to share with you my predictions for what 2014 will have in store for us in terms of Forex, oil, gold and interest rates. Although no one can predict with complete accuracy what the future will bring, my predictions for 2013 turned out to be mostly correct so I hope that my Forecast for 2014 will be accurate too. I must admit that in some cases the market went completely against my predictions so take that into consideration and decide for yourself whether to go with my forecast or not.

This is my 2014 FX forecast:

EUR/USD Forecast for 2014

In the case of EUR/USD there is a conflict between the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis. When we look at the long-term technical analysis it seems to favor the euro, whereas the fundamental analysis points to a rise in USD in 2014. In this case, I tend to favor the fundamental analysis so I expect the price to drop to at least 1.3000 and maybe even as low as 1.2600. The expected decisions on QE tapering may completely change my forecast and cause an opposite trend which could go up to as high as 1.4300 so keep that in mind.

GBP/USD Forecast for 2014

As the interest rates are expected to remain the same for the coming time, my forecast is that there will be no drastic changes in the price and that it will probably slowly drop back down to about 1.5000. For the price to go up there would have to be a combination of tapering delays in the United States and remarkably positive economical reports in the UK. In the case that both those things happen the price may rise up to about 1.7500.

EUR/CHF Forecast for 2014

My Forex forecast for EUR/CHF for 2014 is very little change. As the SNB is likely to continue the minimum rate policy, but not likely to increase the minimum rate, only the possibility of negative interest rates in Switzerland can have a big impact on the price in which case it could go up to as high as 1.3000.

USD/JPY Forecast for 2014

Analysis of both the fundamental and technical aspects point to a bullish trend in the coming year. My forecast for 2014 is that the price will reach at least 110 and 120 at maximum.

That is my Forex Forecast for 2014, now let’s move on to Oil, Gold and Interest Rates.

Oil Forecast for 2014

My forecast is that the price will remain between 96-104 dollars per barrel.  As the demand for oil constantly increases and with no big conflicts in the Middle East that might affect the price there is no reason for the price to deviate far from the current 100 dollars per barrel price.

Gold Forecast for 2014

My technical analysis of the price of Gold shows strong support levels at 1000$ per ounce and at 1200$ per ounce. If 1200$ is broken then I would expect a strong bearish trend to follow, taking the price down to about 1000$. Other than that I don’t expect the price to go above 1200$ or below 1000$.